Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Early Thoughts

The discussion on MSNBC's "Hardball" right now is, of course, predicting what will happen tonight. The consensus is (surprise surprise) Hillary will win Indiana and Obama will take North Carolina.

Then comes the question of what happens if Hillary wins both or Obama wins both. If Hillary win's both, the consensus is "chaos," as Dan Balz of WaPo, meaning that most superdelegates may start buying into Hillary's argument that Obama is a flawed candidate that has been wounded by the events of the last month (Wright, bitter, etc.). If Obama wins both, all pundits except Rachel Maddow think Hillary will drop out.

I am going to go with Maddow on this one with one caveat. I think Hillary would stay in the race forever. However, if Obama does win both, Hillary would seriously risk ruining her political reputation (although, one could make the argument she doesn't care about that). If Obama wins both, he will continue to unveil superdelegate after superdelegate (which he's already been doing) and Clinton's argument will clearly not be gaining traction among that group.

No comments: