Tuesday, May 20, 2008

KY: Betting against SUSA

I'm sorry, but when numbers are this stable, there's usually something wrong with them:

              Clinton  Obama

SUSA, 3/28-30:   58      29

SUSA, 4/12-14:   62      29

SUSA, 4/26-28:   63      27  

SUSA, 5/03-05:   62      28

SUSA, 5/09-11:   62      30

SUSA, 5/16-18:   62      31  

And Ben Smith is reporting that turnout is skewing toward Obama's territory. There's no way he wins Kentucky, but if Obama makes it closer than--say--20 points, that'll be covered like he did win.

We'll see in a few minutes.

UPDATE: With 71% in, it's 65% Clinton to 31% Obama. That means I was wrong. I am duly chastened. I guess Kentucky folks made up their minds and just stuck with it.

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